Forty years of the Islamic Revolution: economic achievements and failures
The Islamic Revolution occurred in a situation in which the society was in an unfavorable social, economic and political environment, which was accompanied by a kind of disgust towards capitalism. After four decades of victory of the Islamic Revolution, the pathology and review of the economic performance of the Islamic Republic of Iran are necessary, and in this paper, from a macro perspective in terms of economic justice and economic well-being (without any figures or statistics, and merely based on the deduction of the writer of this note), and It will also be based on indicators on the economic development dimension (taken from a research work).
- Pathology of Economic Justice
Those who remember the pre-revolutionary conditions know that economic injustice was one of the hallmarks of society before the Islamic Revolution. The dichotomies of the village and the city, down the city and above the city, dependent on the regime and non-regime-dependent, worker, and factory-like, reflect the depth of the economic and social gaps of that time, as one of the reasons for the general uprising The depth of the economic and social gaps can be seen against the Shah’s regime.
Sensitivity to the issue of deprivation at the start of the revolution has led to the formation of institutions and organizations such as the JAHADE SAZANDEGI to help the poor.
Going Jihadi forces to the villages, to create refuges and depopulation, to engage in jihadi actions in areas of reconstruction and construction in deprived areas, to carry out extensive rural development measures, to develop cooperative patterns, to develop livestock and agriculture sectors, to empower rural production and Increasing employment and implementing thousands of road construction projects, building schools, building wells, water supply and electricity in rural and nomadic areas were among the important steps taken to eliminate deprivation. Also, the support of the oppressed and deprived people by the MASKAN Foundation, the EMDAD Committee, the Mostazafan Foundation, the Fifth Khordad Foundation and the BEHZISTI Organization, led to a favorable development in the area of economic justice and the reduction of economic gapsAlso, in all post-revolution development programs, social and economic justice has always been considered, and in practice many of the goals of these programs have been realized.
All that has been done in the field of economic justice so far has not yet succeeded in fully achieving the goals and ideals of the Islamic revolution in this regard, in spite of the great achievements that have been made towards economic justice, and therefore the current status of economic and social justice with a favorable situation. There is a lot of distance to be removed. However, in relative terms, many efforts have been made and good results have been achieved. With Looking at existing statistics in the field of electricity, the penetration rate of cell phones and mobile phones, road construction, gas supply, health facilities and … In deprived areas , become it clear that there is a significant difference between the level of economic justice in Before and after the Islamic Revolution. The reduction in the Gini coefficient (as a benchmark for balance in income deciles) also confirms this conclusion.
- B) Pathology of economic welfare
At the beginning , the Islamic Republic of Iran was the heir to the oil-dependent economy. Therefore, Iran’s economy has been involved with the structural issues of this dependence and problems, such as: inflation, weak tax authority, poor performance in national production and non-oil exports, foreign dependency, prevalence of assembly industries, The import of technical services (to the point where even one dam was not built by domestic experts), the weak defense industry and the banking system serving the dependent capitalism. All of this, along with the unfavorable conditions of welfare in the countryside and the city, so that even many cities were deprived of healthy drinking water, in general, had made the welfare conditions not so good for the public. Although the standard of living in that period , as well as expectations was low ,however, that little demands ,however, in many cases, left with no response, so, raised general dissatisfaction.
With the victory of the revolution and the formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran, unintended events led to the continuation and even more complexity of the structural issues of the economy.
Factors such as the escape of large capitalists abroad, the imposition of imposed warfare, and sanctions led the relatively prestigious economy of the previous regime to a more state-owned, ultimately leading to an escalation of the sovereignty of the state on the economy, and along with the oil economy of the economy ) Led to a more complete cycle of structural problems in the state-oil economy.
In practice, the statehood and oiliness of the economy, simply because of the inefficiency of the state economy and its non-competitiveness and rentiality, and the instability of policy-making in the oil economy, have important implications, including the weakness and instability of economic growth. Which was a major obstacle to improving the welfare state.
In sum, the national economy has been limited in three directions in terms of growth and increased per capita welfare. These three include environmental pressures (such as sanctions), inefficiencies in the management of the national economy and structural problems. The role of managerial inefficiency is special.
Indeed, management inefficiencies have exacerbated the structural problems of the economy and the effectiveness of external pressures in generating welfare inconveniences for the people.
Therefore, the performance of national production growth and national income after the Islamic Revolution on average was less than two percent. Considering population growth, the average per capita growth rate has been near the zero.
This simply means reducing per capita welfare, and if we take into account that the standard of living (and the level of expectations) has increased significantly over these four decades, the reduction in the income-based welfare will be more tangible.
One important point that must be taken into account is that “income-based welfare” is not all welfare.
Indeed, “non-welfare prosperity” stemming from the development of various infrastructures is also part of the welfare of citizens. (Description of progress in section C of this article has been reported)
In this regard, the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite the bottlenecks of war and sanctions, has been relatively successful, and developments in different infrastructures have been remarkable in comparison to the pre-Islamic conditions. If we add “non-performing welfare” to “welfare income”, we can conclude that the real welfare of total per capita (including income and non-income welfare) has increased since the pre-revolutionary period.
(C) Some achievements in the economic development of the four decades of the Islamic Revolution
- Infrastructures
۶ times the roads of the country; increase the main roads of the country from 36 thousand kilometers to more than 210 thousand kilometers in 1394
doubling the country’s railways, increasing the country’s railroad from 4.6 km to about 10 thousand kilometers
۲۰ times the capacity of the country’s ports, increasing the capacity of ports from 10 million tons to more than 200 million tons in 1394
۳۰ times the reservoir dams of the country, the number of dams in the country from 13 dams to about 400 large dams in 1395
۱۴ times the country’s electricity production, increasing the country’s electricity production from 20 to 280 billion kilowatt-hours in 1394 and lighting up 99.9% of the villages (100% of villages above 20 households and 99.3% of villages under 20 households)
Increased access to water is expected to reach 96.2% in 2015.
Development of the gas industry, increasing the share of gas in the energy basket of the country from 1% at the beginning of the Islamic Revolution victory, to 72%
۲۱۱ times the gas split in the country (97% of the cities and 80% of the villages); gas split in the early revolution of 50,000 branches (only 9 cities and one village) to 10,570,000 branches in 1395 (1,833 cities and 23,000 villages )
۳۵ times the number of fixed-line subscribers; from 850,000 subscribers before the revolution, to about 30 million subscribers, the number of R & D offices has reached 8,443 offices in December 1394.
- National production
۵۷ times more non-oil exports, increased non-oil exports from $ 543 million in 1979 to $ 31 billion in 1395
۶٫۵ times production and assembly of automobiles; increase in production and assembly of 150 thousand vehicles in 1979 to produce and assemble about 977 thousand vehicles in 1394;
۳۰ times the production of petrochemical products, increasing the production of petrochemicals from 1.6 million tons in 1979 to 48.1 million tons in 1394
۲۴ times the production of crude steel, increasing the production of crude steel 680 thousand tons in 1979 to 16.7 million tons in 1394
۱۵ times the production of steel products, and production of 1 million tons of steel products in 1979 to 15.7 million tons in 1394
- Poverty Index and Access to Basic Services
Based on economic indicators, poverty has significantly decreased in comparison with the last years before the revolution, so that the poverty rate (ie, the ratio of people less than two dollars a day) is one-digit, which according to the standard of countries It is developing quite low and one eighth before the revolution.
In the years after the revolution, the index of access to basic services and household appliances has increased, so despite urbanization, ownership of housing and per capita land has increased, and the urban-rural gap has decreased in access to basic services, and the final gap between Rural and urban areas have fallen.
Before the revolution, there were only 1.3 million subscribers of electricity, both domestic and public, and industrial and agricultural, while in 2013 this figure reached more than 30.4 million subscribers.
Water status In 1979, water production was 1.5 million cubic meters of water and the number of splits was 2.7 million, but by 1394 there are 450 thousand kilometers of urban and rural water supply networks throughout the country, and the access rate to the water pipe Healthy living in rural areas has also grown as a huge achievement due to the widespread dispersion of rural families in the country.
In the section of the important indicators of the post-revolution gas and gas sector, there were only five cities and about 50,000 divisions that now benefit most from the urban and rural areas of the country, and the number of branches to about 13.5 million branches in urban areas Has reached more than 10,000 villages.
- Progress of the oil industry after the revolution
The production of five main refineries was 2.4 times higher
After the revolution, by the end of 2009, the production of five main refinery products had grown by about 2.4 times before the revolution, with a growth of 135.5%. During this period, the total production of five main products (liquid gas, gasoline, kerosene, gas oil and petrol) increased from 99.74 million liters per day to more than 235.73 million liters per day.
Increase liquid hydrocarbon reserves and natural gas
The liquid hydrocarbon reserves before the revolution were 94.94 billion barrels that reached 15.88 billion barrels after the revolution and by 1390, and the recoverable reserves of natural gas increased from 12.7 trillion cubic meters to 57.3 billion at the beginning of the year, to 33 trillion The cubic meter has arrived in 2011, reflecting a steady appreciation of oil fields and new investments. Over the past three decades, 36.3 billion barrels of crude oil and 2194 billion cubic meters of natural gas have been extracted.
Increased production and sales of oil, gas, liquids and gas condensate, gas injection and drilling
The average gas production from 110 billion cubic meters to 551.9 billion cubic meters, the production of liquids and gas and oil condensates ranging from 31.3 thousand barrels per day to 2,448 thousand barrels per day, gas injection into oil fields, 7.27 million cubic meters per day to 77.7 million cubic meters, and the drilling performance from the average of 117 thousand meters a year before the revolution reached 49.4 thousand square meters by 2011.
۳-fold increase in gasoline production
The gasoline production of the refinery after the revolution and by the end of 2009 compared to the pre-revolution of 1979 with a growth of almost 2/199 percent almost tripled and increased from 14.43 million liters per day to 43.18 million liters per day .
Of course, after 2009 and with regard to the economic development plan as well as new investments in refineries, gasoline and four other major product statistics have increased dramatically.
Increased production of liquid gas
The production of liquid gas after the revolution, and by the end of 2009, has increased by almost 14.2 percent over the period before the revolution, rising by 2.4 times from 3.44 million liters per day to 36.8 million liters per day.
Increase kerosene production
After the revolution, the production of kerosene after the revolution grew by about 39.1 percent, about 4.1 times, from 13.31 million liters per day to 18.52 million liters per day.
Growth of 3.5% of oil production
The production of gas oil after the revolution and by the end of 2009 compared to 67 years before the revolution (1291-1797) increased by 254.8 percent to approximately 3.5 times, from 25 million liters per day to 88.7 million liters The day has risen.
Growth of 2,2 times the supply of refineries in the country
The comparison of feed consumed in Iran’s refinery including crude oil and gas condensate after the revolution and by the end of 2009 compared to 67 years before the revolution (1291-1797), with a growth of 128.6%, was about 2.4 times higher, and 747 Thousands of barrels per day increased to 1708,000 barrels per day.
Significant growth in important gas and gas sector indicators
An examination of the important gas and gas sector indicators by 2008 indicates that domestic gas consumption (domestic, commercial, major industries and power plants) increased from 6.8 million cubic meters per day to 362.4 million cubic meters per day, increasing the refining capacity And demolition (cumulative) of 36 million cubic meters per day to 497.5 million cubic meters per day, increasing gas consumption in power plants from 4 million cubic meters per day to 11.11 million cubic meters per day, increasing construction of transmission lines Natural gas ranged from 2,900 kilometer to 3,013km, the expansion of the installed split from 50,000 branches to 7001815 branches, the population covered by the gas supply of 225 thousand Fahr to 55 million and 86 thousand people, the increase of households covered by natural gas from 51 thousand households to 14 million and 397 thousand and 200 households, increasing the number of gas stations from 5 cities to 744 cities and increasing the number of villages supplied from one village To 7364 villages, which represents the huge amount of investments in this sector.
Significant growth in refinery production
Comparing the important indices of the petrochemical sector until 2008, and during the three years after the revolution, the production of petrochemical products from one million 604 thousand tons per year to 30 million and 40 thousand tons per year, the amount of domestic sales of petrochemical products from 570 thousand tons per year 7, 556 thousand tons per year, the value of domestic sales of petrochemical products from one billion and hundred million USD to 40 billion and 56 million USD, the amount of petrochemical exports from 600 thousand to 12 million 268 thousand tons, and the value of exports of petrochemical products from 46 Million dollars to $ 7 billion and $ 855 million.
Passing gasoline sanctions and self-sufficiency
The increase in gasoline consumption and the lack of responsiveness to domestic production has led to the ban on gasoline exports becoming a means of imposing demands on the West to Iran, which has failed to control consumption and implementation of refineries’ development plans, and today we are seeing a zero import of gasoline. .
Law enforcement aimed at subsidizing and then reforming the price of gasoline was another factor that caused the average daily gasoline consumption of the country to decrease from 73.6 million liters per day in 2007 to less than 60 million liters in 2012. Currently, petrol production in the country has risen to more than 60 to 65 million liters (plus octane and mixing in stock) per day, and given the average daily consumption of about 60 million liters, it can be said that production Exceeding consumption, which, of course, will exploit the 17 ongoing refinery projects, while the ability to export gasoline to Iran will increase.
- Science and Technology
۲۴-fold increase in the number of students, increasing the number of students from 176 thousand in 1979 to 3.4 million in the academic year of 1395
۱۳ times the number of students per 100,000 people increased from 248 to 5486
۱۶٫۵ times the share of Iran in the production of ISI articles; Iran’s contribution to the production of foreign articles of ISI; from 0.1% (669 articles) in 1357 to 1.65% (23 thousand articles) in 1394
Build lightweight and semi-heavy airplanes and helicopters (personal and public)
Satellite launcher, ship making and the production of all kinds of boats that occurred for the first time in the history of the country.
According to the Simago report 1996-2015:
The global ranking of Iran’s science production from 1996 to 2015 has increased from 53 to 16 in the world. The global ranking of Iran’s science production in the field of atomic energy has increased from 83 to 11 (an increase in the number of articles from 1 to 418)
The global ranking of Iranian nanoscience and nanotechnology production from the 57th to the 16th. (Increase the number of articles from 1 to 687)
The global ranking of Iran’s science in biotechnology has improved from the 56th to the 14th century (increasing the number of articles from 11 to 618)
The global ranking of Iran’s science production in aerospace engineering has been improved from 43th to 11th of the world (increasing the number of articles from 4 to 341)
The global ranking of Iran’s science production in the field of medicine from the 54th to the 19th century has improved (increasing the number of articles from 64 to 3,000)
The global ranking of the production of Iranian science in the field of chemistry from the 48th to the 11th of the world has been improved (increasing the number of articles from 79 to 3,000)
The global ranking of Iran’s science production in physics and astronomy from the 64th to the 19th century has increased (increasing the number of articles from 21 to 1,000)
The growing and active presence of the country in the field of science. By 2012, more than 26196 patents have been registered in the country.
Iranian researchers with a record of 8513 scientific papers, are in the 16th rank of science production and among the world’s leading scholars and researchers.
According to the IISO International Organization: Islamic Republic of Iran is among the 57 Islamic countries in terms of scientific and research and patents ranked first in Islamic countries.
Achieve technology and knowledge of the nuclear fuel cycle and rank in the top five countries of the world
Successful entry simultaneously with other advanced countries in the field of new sciences such as: Nanotechnology which ranked seventh in the world and other new sciences including laser, microelectronics, entry into the science of making robots and gaining global achievements in competitions Robotics, hardware development and supercomputer development, software development and widespread use of computer science in the country and the acquisition of 362 medals in various scientific Olympiads of the world.
Increasing the number of physicians from over 15,000 before the revolution to more than 111,000 people and removing the full need of the country for the recruiting of foreign physicians
Changing and turning the country into a regional pillar of health tourism, and accepting and treating foreign patients in a variety of diseases
Achieving stem cell culture knowledge, being among the top countries of the kidney transplant and treating ocular diseases.
Gain valuable experience in coping with a variety of chemical agents and illnesses
- Indicators of economic and social development
Iran’s score in terms of the human development index has improved from 0.567 in 1990 to 766 in 2014. (Improved rank from 92 to 69)
Iran is ranked third in terms of the increase in the index of human development during the 1990-1994 period after the Rwandan and Chinese countries.
The life expectancy of Iran has increased from 54.1 years in 1980 to 75.4 years in 2014. (Improved rank from 142 to 63)
Iran is ranked seventh in the world as the index of life expectancy has increased over the period from 2014 to 1980.
The average years of studying in Iran increased from 2.3 years in 1980 to 8.8 in 2014. (Improved rating from 109 to 100)
Iran is ranked fifth in terms of the average yearly increase in education over the period from 2014 to 1980.
The expected years of studying in Iran from 9.2 years in 1990 to 15.1 in 2014 have increased. (Improved rank from 114 to 45)
Iran is ranked sixth in the world in terms of the increase in the expected years of education over the period 2014-1990.
The child mortality rate (per 1,000 births) in Iran has improved from 44.1 in 1990 to 14.4 in 2013. (Improved rank from 109 to 92)
Improvement of income distribution, reducing the Gini coefficient from 43,60 in 1979 to 3988 in 1394
Construction of numerous industrial settlements on the edge of the cities of the country
Build production collections in villages that have become a continuous program.
In addition to increasing the number of factories, increasing the diversity of products and increasing exports
Significant increase in steel production from half a million tons before the revolution to 38 million tons per year and ranked 14th in the world
Increase cement production from 6.3 million tons to about 80 million tons
Increase mineral output from 20 million tons to 220 million tons
Increase and expand the production and export of cars with a variety of light and heavy vehicles
Increase and development of various types of household and industrial plants and dozens of similar items
Summary of discussion:
In the context of general discontent, the Islamic revolution was shaped by the political, cultural, social and economic situation of the previous regime. In the economic component, the performance of the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran in two aspects of economic justice and economic well-being requires a comparison with the pre-revolutionary situation. In the center of Islamic justice, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been performing remarkably well, and it can be asserted with certainty that class distance in the economy is lower than in the past, but it is still in a favorable position. In the context of economic welfare, attention is required for “income welfare” and “non-welfare prosperity”. In the “income welfare” measured by the per capita GDP growth rate (at constant prices), the Islamic Republic of Iran has not had a defensive performance. The underlying causes of this poor performance are three key factors: inheriting the oil economy with its specific structural problems, the pressures and bottlenecks created by the enemies, and the ineffectiveness of national economic management. At the same time, “non-welfare prosperity”, which is the result of the progress made in the development and development of various infrastructures in the country, has improved significantly, so that in aggregate with incomes, welfare has increased the total per capita total. But since (according to the author of these lines), national economic management has played a decisive role among the three factors, as it operated in a decent manner, and the forty-year course of the national economy was on the verge of being resolved. The structural problems of the economy were regulated, and now, despite the external pressures, we saw a flourishing economy and a higher real welfare.