پیش بینی تقاضای نفت در جهان تا ۲۰۳۰

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تا سال ۲۰۲۳ تقاضای جهانی نفت با ۶٫۹ میلیون بشکه در روز افزایش نسبت به ۲۰۱۸  به رقم ۱۰۴٫۷ میلیون بشکه در روز خواهد رسید . با این حال به دلیل وضعیت خاص اقتصاد چین و هند که جمعاً  نیمی از تقاضای نفت جهانی را شامل می شوند و نیز به دلیل جایگزینی سایر انرژی ها ، نرخ رشد تقاضای نفت کاهش خواهد یافت.

Solid economy underpins demand growth

A strong world economy is expected to underpin solid increases in oil demand. The International Monetary Fund sees global economic growth at 3.9% in the early part of our forecast period with all regions expected to perform well. Strong economies will, in turn, use more oil and we expect demand to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 mb/d. By 2023, oil demand will reach 104.7 mb/d, up 6.9 mb/d from 2018. As has been the case for some years, China and India together will contribute nearly 50% of global oil demand. As China’s economy becomes more consumer-oriented, the rate of growth in oil demand slows down to 2023, compared with the 2010-17 period. In contrast, the pace of oil demand growth will pick up slightly in India.

While there is no peak oil demand in sight, the pace of growth will slow down to 1 mb/d by 2023 after expanding by 1.4 mb/d in 2018. There are signs of substitution of oil by other energy sources in various countries. A prime example is China, which has some of the world’s most-stringent fuel efficiency and emissions regulations. As the country recognises the urgent need to tackle poor air quality in cities, efforts are intensifying. Sales of electric vehicles are rising and there is strong growth in the deployment of natural gas vehicles, particularly into fleets of trucks and buses. Our analysis shows that a rising number of electric buses and LNG-fueled trucks in China will significantly slow gasoil demand growth.

 

The US dominates supply growth

With OPEC capacity growing only modestly, more attention is focussed on the non-OPEC countries, led by the United States, which is becoming ever more dominant in the global oil market. Driven by LTO, by 2023 United States output grows by 3.7 mb/d, more than half of the total global production capacity growth of 6.4 mb/d expected by then. Total liquids production in the United States will reach nearly 17 mb/d, easily making it the top global producer, and nearly matching the level of its domestic products demand. US production could be even higher by 2023 if prices rise above the assumptions made in this report, which is based on the current forward price curve.

Brazil, Canada and Norway will also contribute to supply growth. Along with the United States, they provide nearly all of the non-OPEC increase. Production of conventional crude oil in non-OPEC countries, which excludes US LTO, will actually decline to 2023.

 

 

 

The United States

The United States is also making its mark in the refining industry. Conventional wisdom has it that rapidly rising LTO production is incompatible with the need of refiners to process heavier, sourer crudes, given earlier investments. This will not, in fact, be the case. With Asian import requirements growing there will be opportunities for new suppliers. As Canadian shipments to the United States grow, this frees up lighter US crude for export, particularly to meet Asian demand for petrochemical feedstocks. Shipments of oil from the United States to China are already significant. US exports will also be ideally placed to meet the need, post-IMO, for more low-sulphur crude, with a low yield of fuel oil.

The United States is well-placed to increase its role in global markets. Since the ban on exporting crude oil was lifted at the end of 2015, volumes have increased sharply, reaching 2 mb/d in some weeks. In 2018 and 2019, there might be bottlenecks in pipeline capacity for moving oil from Canada and the Permian Basin. But a close look at investment in logistics finds that after 2019, on the assumption that new projects being considered are actually commissioned, constraints will ease. This includes major Canadian projects such as Trans Mountain and Keystone XL pipeline, and the TexStar Logistics’ ۵۵۰ kb/d EPIC pipeline, due to be up and running in 2019 in Texas. Ten crude oil export facilities are either being upgraded or built. As a result, by 2023 capacity is expected to more than double from current levels to about 4.9 mb/d. Corpus Christi will become the main export hub in the Gulf Coast.

ماخذ : https://www.iea.org/oil2018

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